19 November 2025

Good morning ladies and gentlemen and thank you for inviting me to say a few words here this morning. Roger invited me to address you last year, but I was sadly unable to make it so you had the benefit of listening to Norman Dlamini from Forestry South Africa. I certainly hope I can match the excellent job that Norman did.

When Roger invited me to speak today, he was quite keen for me to explore the potential impact of the tariffs, which the convicted criminal and sexual miscreant President of the US, Donald Trump, has imposed on South Africa and specifically, to discuss how this might affect our industry. I told Roger that it might be the shortest speech I’ve ever given because, thankfully, we export very few forestry products to the United States. Thank God for small mercies. That doesn’t mean, however, that our industry is totally insulated from the madness that this criminal orange fascist is inflicting on his own economy and others around the world. While it is true that we don’t export much directly to the US, some of our larger multinational members like Sappi and Mondi certainly do export to the US from their other manufacturing bases outside of South Africa. Their exports of pulp, paper, packaging and textiles from those countries, which have also been slapped with tariffs by the Trump administration, have definitely been affected, but in general a speech about the impact of US tariffs on our Industry, would have been very short.

In fact that reminds of a speech I once heard, in which the speaker asked the audience if they wanted a long speech on the subject at hand, or a short speech about sex. The audience of course said they’d prefer a short speech about sex. So, he said, “Ladies and Gentlemen, it
gives me great pleasure.”

So, once Roger and I had concluded that a tariff speech would be very short, like the one on sex, he asked if I could instead focus this talk on the state of the forestry industry in South Africa — both where we have come from, and where we expect to be going. So let me start with some macro context.

Shortly after President Ramaphosa was appointed in 2018, the visionaries of Roelf Meyer and the late Dr Johan van Zyl from Toyota Africa and Europe, approached the President to offer their assistance, and the assistance of the business sector, to help turn the country around after the decade of disaster that our own convicted criminal and sexual miscreant President, Jacob Zuma, had inflicted on our country. Anyone see the similarities between Trump and Zuma yet?

This led to the creation of what was called the Public-Private Growth Initiative (PPGI), which concluded its extraordinary work at the beginning of this year. The PPGI was a collaboration of key sectors that Roelf Meyer and Johan van Zyl  believed would be instrumental in rejuvenating the South African economy, provided the administration of Cyril Ramaphosa could begin to implement the structural, legislative, and administrative reforms, which Jacob Zuma had systematically undone over his decade of disaster. Forestry South Africa was fortunate to be included in this process, as Roelf Meyer jokingly put it, “by barging our way into it”!

We enjoyed six years of both influencing the reform agenda and benefiting from it. I remember being on the Gautrain with Alex Thiel, the former CEO of Sappi, and Themba Vilane, GM of Mondi Forests, on our way to meet Cyril at Gallagher Estate in 2019 and remarking that the PPGI felt like our last shot as a country, at fixing what Zuma and his henchmen had broken. I recall clearly Alex raising his eyebrows and saying, “It really does feel like the last chance hotel.” That’s how close the country came to being a failed state under Zuma.

Imagine our surprise when we met the President and senior members of his Cabinet, and the information pack on the key sectors in the PPGI had forestry listed as the very first sector! This gave Alex, Themba and myself great hope that our issues would finally receive the political and administrative attention they deserved.

The PPGI also gave birth to Operation Vulindlela, headed by Mr Rudi Dicks in the Presidency, who we were privileged to have as our keynote speaker at FSA’s AGM in May of this year. The PPGI and Operation Vulindlela became the engines driving structural, legislative, and administrative reforms in energy, transport and logistics, water licensing, visa reform, and telecommunications, four of which directly affected our sector.

Then, as the PPGI was gaining momentum, the country and the world were struck by COVID-19. We were fortunate as Forestry to be involved in the PPGI because our next meeting with the President was already scheduled and he had already announced the date for the start of the lockdown. We therefore turned the agenda around from being a progress report on reforms, to a meeting about how our sectors could support the country to weather the devastating social and economic impacts we correctly anticipated COVID-19 would bring. The President was delighted to use the PPGI in this way, and so we established what was called the Essential Sectors Forum. Through that forum, we were able to systematically reopen several of our subsector processing plants and to keep all timber growing and harvesting operations open. Our sector saved around R10 billion in what would otherwise have been lost output as a result of being part of the Essential Sectors Forum and engaging with the Presidency at the highest level. COVID-19 cost our sector around R5 billion in lost production, but we calculated that this would, in fact, have been R15 billion had we not worked closely with the Presidency to keep as much of our sector and its subsectors going.

Then we had the massive energy crisis with rolling blackouts and the reluctance of Gwede “God help us” Mantashe, to lift the 5MW cap on IPPs. The Presidency then reached out directly to us, to urgently give then the potential energy projects in our sector, which couldhelp to address the crisis. We rapidly canvassed our larger members in SAPPI, MONDI, YORK, PG BISON and SSA, to produce a picture of potential investment into energy generation and the Presidency used that information, along with that from other Sectors, within the space of three months, to move the cap not from 5MW to 20MW or even to 100MW but to completely remove any limits on generation from any sector! Two years ago already, this had led to 7GW of rooftop solar alone, which is nearly twice the capacity of Medupi, and in no small way, along with major structural and operational reforms in Eskom, led to the suspension of loadshedding, six months ahead of even the most optimistic analysts. Mondi are investing around R3Bn in a new 200MW bio-energy boiler in Richards Bay and they will now be able to sell excess energy into the grid once the grid is upgraded, which is a special focus of Operation Vulindlela too.

We then had the crippling Ports and rail strike. Once again, the Presidency and the PPGI invited the Forestry industry to meet every night with late Minister Pravin Gordhan, Mr Peter Attard Montalto and Dr Juanita Maree-Savino, to help address the crisis. Once the strike was over in April of 2023, FSA was invited one evening to make a presentation to the President on what was needed in ports and rail. Our Sector was once again seen as a credible partner to advise the highest office in the country, on these issues which affected the entire economy. That meeting led directly to the President, establishing the National Logistics Crisis Committee, the Freight Logistics Roadmap, the Network Statement and the restructuring of Transnet. We now have a functional task team with TFR’s C-suite execs working on our four main rail projects and I am certain that we will get all four over the line and we will see a return of major volumes from road back onto rail. Even the crucial visa reforms, which we needed to bring in scarce and critical skills at our processing plants, were influenced by our inputs to the Presidency. Then we had the failed insurrection caused by the supporters of Zuma and which took the lives of 350 people and cost the country over R50Bn. FSA through the Essential Sectors Forum was able to provide live updates to our members on progress in containing this insurrection, as well as on the support from the non-captured factions of the SAPS and SANDF. Thankfully, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla was arrested and is finally facing charges of incitement to violence and terrorism! Let’s help her co-conspirators are also held to account.

In the PPGI, we committed as a Sector, to investing R27.5Bn in new investments, if the President was able to drive the structural, legislative and administrative reforms which were hampering our Sector. They certainly did that for our Sector in water licencing reform, energy reform, rail and ports (although that’s still a work in progress) and visa reform. The consequence of those reforms are that SAPPI, MONDI, PG BISON and several other companies in fact invested R33.5 Bn over the last six years and SAPPI have just announced another R5.1Bn in new investment at the recent Mpumalanga Investment Conference.

So now you know how things have been unfolding for our Sector over the last six years and the investments which our members are continuing to make, tells you that they see a bright future for our Sector in South Africa. If you want to gauge real investor confidence, the best indicator is fixed capital formation and FDI. Portfolio or stock exchange investment isn’t a reliable indicator, as that money can be pulled out as easily as it comes into the country

Last month, New Forests Company, which is an Australian company, bought Rance Timbers in the Eastern Cape. This foreign direct investment would only be made if they believed that the political, economic and administrative prospects for out Sector are low risk because once you invest in timber, you are in it for the long haul.

Our volumes are increasing steadily and we have just recorded the highest timber volumes through FSA for the last seven years in our YTD volumes. This is 8.6% higher than the same period last year and pulpwood volumes are up 12%. That being said, international timber prices remain depressed and so margins remain under major pressure but at least turnover is good, which is good for you as contractors, as it means you will have work orders coming in.

I’ve already told you about the investments made by our own Sector but what else is looking positive for South Africa? Economically, despite ongoing global disruptions from geopolitical conflicts (including the predicted disastrous second term of Donald Trump) and other causes of volatility in global markets, South Africa has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Inflation has fallen from around 5.3% to around 3.4%, we are on track for the third consecutive budget surplus, the Rand has strengthened significantly by about 11%, the  JSE has surged by a record 54% and FDI has improved, including in our Sector, where I mentioned already that Rance timbers have sold their majority share to New Forests Company in Australia.

Three weeks ago, South Africa was removed from the G7’s Financial Action Task Force grey list and last week S+P upgraded our credit rating, both of which improvements, will increase investor confidence, lower transaction costs, reduce SA’s reputational risk and increase FDI. On Monday the Business Day reported that R5 trillion had flowed back into the JSE YTD.

We have also seen significant progress in anti-corruption and governance reforms. The prosecution of high-profile cases, including those arising from the Zondo Report, continues to demonstrate the State’s increasing commitment to accountability. We have also seen the impacts of the Parliamentary ad hoc Committee into the allegations made by General Mkhwanazi which are the subject of the much bigger Madlanga Commission of Inquiry into Criminality, Political Interference and Corruption in the Criminal Justice System. As we told members in February, these criminals, who profited off the poor by stealing hundreds of billions of Rands through their grand State capture project, now have limited options. Nathi Mthewtwa is the most recent person to escape justice, by jumping out of a window in Paris, not Parys mind you, where his party broke down every functional aspect of that municipality. Seems that would have been a more fitting place to have defenestrated himself, if anyone is interested in symbolic acts. Still, as is the way of the ANC, he received a full State funeral at our expense, with tons of praise being heaped on him for his service to South Africa. He joins the likes of Tina Joemat-Pettersen, Gavin Watson and Marcus Jooste who also chose death,
rather than face their crimes.

Jacob Zuma has been ordered to pay back R28.9m in State-funded legal fees (or have his pension attached). Let’s see if he lives long enough to face justice. His court case starts next months after years of Stalingrad slow-rolling tactics.

The High Court has dismissed Lucky Montana’s bid to interdict SARS from seizing his assets to satisfy his R55m tax liability and Hangwani Maumela has just had all of his assets seized by the Asset Forfeiture Unit, to recover the R1.2Bn which he stole through the Thembisa hospital State-capture project and for which, the courageous Ms Babita Deokaran, was murdered.

The progress on crime and corruption for our Sector specifically, has also gained momentum. FSA was instrumental in the establishment of the National Priority Committee on Violence and Extortion at Commercial Sites and our Operations Director, Francois Oberholzer is deeply involved in that structure. You may have seen in the news this week at the Construction Sector mafia are being systematically dismantled.

The climate within Parliament and Cabinet has remained largely stable, enabling constructive policy debate and oversight, albeit that for our Sector, there have been some major political changes. So before anyone accuses me of being too optimistic, let me say that we are still facing several challenges as a Sector. FSA was invited in August, to make a presentation to a high-level roundtable with the NPC and OV Head in the Presidency, on the challenges in implementing our Forestry Masterplan with the DFFE. The presentation focused strongly on the lapses by the DFFE in the areas of increasing and protecting timber resources in the country and supporting existing and new entrants. We also pointed out that Minister Dion George had not yet engaged our Sector fully, since his appointment in 2024 but that he was planning to visit Industry in September. Ms Jenny Cargill, of Strategy Execution Advisors was
in the meeting and her subsequent direct engagement with the political head of the Democratic Alliance, was instrumental in sensitising Minister George to the need for urgent intervention by DFFE in respect of our Sector, just a week prior to his visit to Industry.

We reported in May, that when FSA’s Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson met Minister George earlier in the year to discuss environmental matters, they too were able to sensitise him to some of the challenges of our Sector and they obtained an undertaking from him to engage properly with the Industry. FSA’s subsequent presentation to the NPC and Presidency in August and the intervention of SEA, ensured that the Minister was more-acutely sensitised to our challenges in the Masterplan, to the extent that when he visited Industry in September, he arrived with a copy of our Masterplan in his hands. Both Minister George and Deputy Minister Singh attended the two-day visit to Industry, which was kindly hosted by SAPPI, who provided an excellent programme of events which provided an opportunity to show the Minister and Deputy Minister the tangible impacts of their Department’s ongoing failures in their obligations in the Masterplan, including the ongoing failures by the DFFE to crowd in the private sector to recapitalise the State’s category B and C plantations, the failure of DFFE to finalise the EIAs for new afforestation, the repeated failures by DFFE to support forest protection in the areas of fire prevention and control, pest and disease management and illegal activities in the Industry and the failure by DFFE to provide support to small-scale timber growers and other new entrants into the Sector. We also pointed out broader challenges to our Sector like the failure to repair and recapitalise key rail and road
infrastructure, which was undermining the Sector’s international competitiveness across many companies and the challenges with the Registrar’s office in the DoA.

The Minister and Deputy Minister, both expressed their regret that it had taken so long to engage with our Sector and also expressed their deep appreciation of the challenges which the DFFE was causing for our Sector. They assured us that they would be urgently reviewing the Masterplan implementation issues and they would convene another meeting with us shortly. This indeed happened less than three weeks later and even before that meeting, the Minister sent three letters to different stakeholders on the fire challenges and which we believe have already made a marked improvement for fire management in our Sector.

In our second meeting with the Minister and DM at the end of September, the Minister informed us that he had formally assigned the Forestry portfolio to Deputy Minister Narend Singh, whose leadership has already produced measurable outcomes. Among these are:

• The DFFE committed to redoing the bidding processes for the Cat B and C plantations, starting with Requests for Proposals (RFPs) and holding compulsory briefing sessions with prospective bidders. They also committed to ensuring that bidders would have guaranteed access to all plantations to conduct due diligence. The RFPs and compulsory briefing sessions would effectively extend the time which bidders had to
  perform due diligence on the State plantations and to make informed and comprehensive bids.
• The DM undertook to follow up with Minister Steenhuizen on the outstanding Forestry applications and the irregular PCO Regulations. FSA sent him a memo on this and his Chief of Staff has confirmed that the letter was sent to Minister Steenhuizen.
  Minister Steenhuizen in turn has committed to launching an online application process which will expedite the process and stop the potential for brown envelop service delivery!
• He undertook to call a meeting with the department’s Supply Chain Management to understand and resolve the repeated delays in the MoA with FSA on forestry pests and diseases. FSA’s Research and Protection Director sent a memo to the Minister’s Chief of Staff in this regard.
• The Deputy Minister requested a motivation from the Chief Director to secure funding for the long-delayed national fire database and we held another positive meeting with the DFFE on the fire database last week.
• The DFFE welcomed FSA’s strong collaboration with SAPS and the DOJ and the Deputy Minister stressed the need for high-visibility prosecutions, to deter organised crime in Forestry and help train law enforcement agencies on how to deter and reduce crimes in the Sector. FSA’s Operations Director is in regular contact with the DM’s office to increase our partnership with them in this critical area.
• The DM undertook to send a letter to Minister Creecy on the Illovo Bridge crisis. FSA sent him a memo and his COS confirmed that the Minister has sent the letter to Minister Creecy and they are awaiting a reply. Since then, PRASA met with us last week and have confirmed that the Bridge is a priority of theirs now.

So, just as Minister George had finally started to attend to the Forestry function in the DFFE, the Democratic Alliance withdrew him and the President has appointed Minister Willem Aucamp in his place. Whether that is because he was threatening the captive breeding and hunting lobby industry or because he was allegedly was also going down the road of sexually inappropriate behaviour, we don’t know. What we do know from the actions of politicians like Clinton, Trump, Johnston, Zuma and others, is that there are no good or bad political parties, as those exist only as a representation of ideas. There are however good and bad politicians from across the political spectrum in every country.

We don’t know for sure who had oral sex with whom/what (Clinton, Trump), who was Jeffrey Epstein’s biggest pal, who raped children (Trump et al) and adults (Zuma), who bragged about the size of their manhood, who abused their corporate credit cards, or who capitulated to the genocidal Israeli government and murderous Russian President. What we do know, however, is that all of the actors in these shameful news stories, came from political parties across the spectrum in each country, hence my point that there is no such thing as a good or bad party.

Perhaps the best domestic example of why one should assess parties and their office bearers separately, can be found in our own President. While the ANC was completely losing touch with their electorate and haemorrhaging votes, Cyril Ramaphosa was working tirelessly to bring about all of the structural, legislative and administrative reforms to the country, which have produced the positive outcomes I have spoken about today. He was the saving grace of South Africa, even though he knew his reform agenda couldn’t save his party but he did the right things for the good of the country anyway.

The ANC may however be taking some pleasure in the public discord on display by the DA at the moment between George and Steenhuizen and they must be relieved that for a change, it’s happening to another party!

FSA has written to Minister Aucamp to congratulate him on his appointment and to invite him to engage with the Industry at his earliest possible convenience, so that we do not have a repeat of the one-year delay which occurred with Minister George’s appointment.

Fortunately, Deputy Minister Singh seems to have retained his portfolio and he and his Office are incredibly supportive and responsive to our Industry, so we will continue to strengthen our engagements with him.

I hope that I have given you enough objective evidence that our Sector and our country are firmly on the right footing and that once global markets recover, we will continue to see major growth for our industry and good prospects for the Contracting sub-sector too.

I wish you everything of the best for you AGM today and for the year ahead.

Michael Peter
Forestry South Africa